| Statistic | Diyar Nurgozhay | Rafael Tobias | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Striking | |||
| Sig. Strike Accuracy | 63.1% | 33.1% | ◄ |
| Sig. Strikes Landed/min | 5.7 | 2.0 | ◄ |
| Sig. Strikes Absorbed/min | 2.8 | 6.2 | ◄ |
| Strike Differential | 2.8/min | -4.2/min | ◄ |
| Grappling | |||
| Takedown Accuracy | 75.0% | 33.3% | ◄ |
| Takedown Defense | 70.0% | 100.0% | ► |
| Takedowns Landed/15min | 1.5 | 1.7 | — |
| Submission Attempts/15min | 0.0 | 0.6 | ► |
| Control Time/15min | 1:23 | 1:58 | — |
| Finishing Ability | |||
| KO/TKO % of Wins | 50.0% | 0.0% | — |
| Submission % of Wins | 0.0% | 0.0% | — |
| Decision % of Wins | 50.0% | 0.0% | — |
| Avg Fight Time | 7:18 | 13:05 | — |
| Secondary Stats | |||
| Knockdowns/15min | 1.0 | 0.0 | — |
| Reversals/15min | 0.5 | 0.0 | — |
| Edges | 5 | 2 | 2 even |
| Statistic | Diyar Nurgozhay | Rafael Tobias | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fight Shape | |||
| Fight Completion Rate | 48.7% | 87.2% | — |
| Avg Fight Time | 7:18 | 13:05 | — |
| % Fights Inside the Distance | 75.0% | 50.0% | — |
| Strength of UFC Schedule | |||
| Opponent UFC Win % (all) | 28.6% | 0.0% | ◀ |
| Opponent UFC Record (all) | 2-5 (28.6%) | 0-2 (0.0%) | — |
| Opponent Record (among wins) | 1-2 (33.3%) | — | — |
| Positional Profile | |||
| % Time at Distance (approx.) | 77.1% | 80.7% | — |
| % Time in Control | 9.3% | 13.1% | — |
| % Time Controlled | 13.6% | 6.2% | — |
| Control Rate of Clinch/Ground Time | 40.6% | 68.0% | ▶ |
| Distance Striking | |||
| Distance Sig. Landed / Min | 6.13 | 1.75 | ◀ |
| Distance Sig. Absorbed / Min | 3.11 | 6.96 | ◀ |
| Distance Striking Differential / Min | +3.02 | -5.21 | ◀ |
| Distance Strike Accuracy | 61.3% | 27.2% | ◀ |
| Distance Strike Defense | 60.0% | 36.9% | ◀ |
| Power & Pressure | |||
| KDs per 100 Power Strikes | 2.06 | 0.00 | ◀ |
| Knocked Down per 100 Absorbed | 3.85 | 1.74 | ▶ |
| TD Attempts per 5 Distance Min | 0.89 | 2.13 | — |
| TDs Faced per 5 Distance Min | 2.22 | 0.24 | — |
| Fade Index (R3 / R1 pace) | — | — | — |
| Statistic | Diyar Nurgozhay | Rafael Tobias | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sig. Strike Accuracy | 63.1% | 33.1% | ◄ |
| Sig. Strikes Landed/min | 5.7 | 2.0 | ◄ |
| Sig. Strikes Absorbed/min | 2.8 | 6.2 | ◄ |
| Takedown Accuracy | 75.0% | 33.3% | ◄ |
| Takedown Defense | 70.0% | 100.0% | ► |
| Control Time/Fight | 0:40 | 1:43 | — |
| Edges | 4 | 1 | 1 even |
No Common Opponents
Striking Volume: Diyar Nurgozhay is the busier striker, landing 5.7 significant strikes per minute vs 2.0. Their opponent absorbs 6.2 strikes per minute on average — Diyar Nurgozhay's output should find a target.
Striking Accuracy: Diyar Nurgozhay connects on 63.1% of significant strikes compared to 33.1%. The 30pp accuracy gap compounds over the rounds.
Grappling: Diyar Nurgozhay shoots at 75% accuracy but Rafael Tobias stops 100% of attempts — the takedown path looks difficult. Rafael Tobias shoots at 33% accuracy against Diyar Nurgozhay's 70% defense — Diyar Nurgozhay should keep it standing.
Finish Threat: Diyar Nurgozhay finishes 50% of wins (50% KO/TKO, 0% sub).
Fight Length: Rafael Tobias's fights average 13:05 vs 7:18 for Diyar Nurgozhay. If this reaches the championship rounds, Rafael Tobias's conditioning history becomes a factor.