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Ernesta Kareckaite vs Melissa Gatto

Ernesta Kareckaite

Pro 6-2-1  |  UFC 1-2-0
Women's Flyweight
VS

Melissa Gatto

Pro 9-3-2  |  UFC 3-3-0
Age
28|30
Height
5'9"|5'5"
Reach
71"|69"
Stance
Orthodox|Orthodox

Career Statistics

Statistic Ernesta Kareckaite Melissa Gatto Edge
Striking
Sig. Strike Accuracy40.1%49.7%►
Sig. Strikes Landed/min5.63.5◄
Sig. Strikes Absorbed/min4.92.7►
Strike Differential0.7/min0.8/min—
Grappling
Takedown Accuracy66.7%27.3%◄
Takedown Defense78.6%58.8%◄
Takedowns Landed/15min0.71.8►
Submission Attempts/15min0.00.4—
Control Time/15min2:054:29►
Finishing Ability
KO/TKO % of Wins0.0%100.0%—
Submission % of Wins0.0%0.0%—
Decision % of Wins100.0%0.0%—
Avg Fight Time15:0012:43—
Secondary Stats
Knockdowns/15min0.00.2—
Reversals/15min1.00.8—
Edges342 even

Fight Dynamics

Career Striking Volume
Ernesta Kareckaite   Melissa Gatto   League median
StatisticErnesta KareckaiteMelissa GattoEdge
Fight Shape
Fight Completion Rate100.0%84.9%—
Avg Fight Time15:0012:43—
% Fights Inside the Distance0.0%50.0%—
Strength of UFC Schedule
Opponent UFC Win % (all)—53.6%—
Opponent UFC Record (all)—15-13 (53.6%)—
Opponent Record (among wins)—6-6 (50.0%)—
Positional Profile
% Time at Distance (approx.)67.3%38.3%—
% Time in Control13.9%30.0%▶
% Time Controlled18.8%31.7%◀
Control Rate of Clinch/Ground Time42.5%48.6%—
Distance Striking
Distance Sig. Landed / Min7.237.69—
Distance Sig. Absorbed / Min6.174.78▶
Distance Striking Differential / Min+1.06+2.90▶
Distance Strike Accuracy38.4%47.4%▶
Distance Strike Defense56.5%61.3%—
Power & Pressure
KDs per 100 Power Strikes0.000.48▶
Knocked Down per 100 Absorbed0.000.00—
TD Attempts per 5 Distance Min0.495.64—
TDs Faced per 5 Distance Min4.622.90—
Fade Index (R3 / R1 pace)1.631.14—
UFC fights only. Metrics with insufficient data show "—" and award no edge. Methodology →

Last 5 Fights (Averages)

Statistic Ernesta Kareckaite Melissa Gatto Edge
Sig. Strike Accuracy40.1%47.3%—
Sig. Strikes Landed/min5.62.9◄
Sig. Strikes Absorbed/min4.92.4►
Takedown Accuracy66.7%28.6%◄
Takedown Defense78.6%50.0%◄
Control Time/Fight2:054:12►
Edges321 even

Last 3 Fights

Ernesta Kareckaite

LOSS
vs. Regina Tarin
Decision (Unanimous) • Rd 3, 5:00
Ernesta Kareckaite105/24942%TD 1/2Ctrl 1:17
Regina Tarin114/23948%TD 1/3Ctrl 1:02
▼ Rounds
WIN
vs. Nicolle Caliari
UFC Fight Night: Dern vs. Ribas 2 • Jan 2025Women's Flyweight
Decision (Split) • Rd 3, 5:00
Ernesta Kareckaite95/22642%TD 0/0Ctrl 1:33
Nicolle Caliari67/16640%TD 3/14Ctrl 3:34
▼ Rounds
LOSS
vs. Dione Barbosa
UFC 301: Pantoja vs. Erceg • May 2024Women's Flyweight
Decision (Unanimous) • Rd 3, 5:00
Ernesta Kareckaite53/15634%TD 1/1Ctrl 3:25
Dione Barbosa39/7155%TD 2/11Ctrl 3:51
▼ Rounds

Melissa Gatto

LOSS
vs. Dione Barbosa
UFC Fight Night: Moicano vs. Duncan • Apr 2026Women's Flyweight
Decision (Majority) • Rd 3, 5:00
Melissa Gatto33/6749%TD 3/12Ctrl 4:48
Dione Barbosa30/6745%TD 3/6Ctrl 6:06
▼ Rounds
WIN
vs. Tamires Vidal
UFC Fight Night: Barboza vs. Murphy • May 2024Women's Bantamweight
KO/TKO (Punch) • Rd 3, 0:37
Melissa Gatto30/5258%TD 2/2Ctrl 6:58
Tamires Vidal15/2952%TD 0/0Ctrl 0:53
▼ Rounds
LOSS
vs. Ariane da Silva
UFC Fight Night: Strickland vs. Magomedov • Jul 2023Women's Flyweight
Decision (Split) • Rd 3, 5:00
Melissa Gatto85/18646%TD 0/7Ctrl 2:57
Ariane da Silva66/14944%TD 1/1Ctrl 0:47
▼ Rounds

Common Opponents

vs. Dione Barbosa
Ernesta Kareckaite
LOSS
UFC 301: Pantoja vs. Erceg • May 2024Women's Flyweight
Decision (Unanimous) • Rd 3, 5:00
Ernesta Kareckaite53/15634%TD 1/1Ctrl 3:25
Dione Barbosa39/7155%TD 2/11Ctrl 3:51
▼ Rounds
Melissa Gatto
LOSS
UFC Fight Night: Moicano vs. Duncan • Apr 2026Women's Flyweight
Decision (Majority) • Rd 3, 5:00
Melissa Gatto33/6749%TD 3/12Ctrl 4:48
Dione Barbosa30/6745%TD 3/6Ctrl 6:06
▼ Rounds

Analysis Summary

Striking Volume: Ernesta Kareckaite is the busier striker, landing 5.6 significant strikes per minute vs 3.5. Their opponent absorbs 2.7 strikes per minute on average — Ernesta Kareckaite's output should find a target.

Striking Accuracy: Melissa Gatto connects on 49.7% of significant strikes compared to 40.1%. The 10pp accuracy gap compounds over the rounds.

Grappling: Ernesta Kareckaite shoots 0.7 TD/15min at 67% accuracy against Melissa Gatto's 59% defense — takedowns are a viable path. Melissa Gatto shoots at 27% accuracy against Ernesta Kareckaite's 79% defense — Ernesta Kareckaite should keep it standing.

Control: Melissa Gatto controls 3:49 per fight on average vs 2:05 — sustained control shifts rounds and drains cardio.

Finish Threat: Melissa Gatto finishes 100% of wins (100% KO/TKO, 0% sub).

Fight Length: Ernesta Kareckaite's fights average 15:00 vs 12:43 for Melissa Gatto. If this reaches the championship rounds, Ernesta Kareckaite's conditioning history becomes a factor.

Last updated: 2026-10-01 | Data source: UFCStats.com