| Statistic | Ilia Topuria | Justin Gaethje | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Striking | |||
| Sig. Strike Accuracy | 48.2% | 58.4% | ► |
| Sig. Strikes Landed/min | 4.8 | 6.2 | ► |
| Sig. Strikes Absorbed/min | 3.8 | 6.9 | ◄ |
| Strike Differential | 1.0/min | -0.7/min | ◄ |
| Grappling | |||
| Takedown Accuracy | 61.1% | 40.0% | ◄ |
| Takedown Defense | 93.8% | 75.0% | ◄ |
| Takedowns Landed/15min | 2.0 | 0.3 | ◄ |
| Submission Attempts/15min | 1.1 | 0.0 | ◄ |
| Control Time/15min | 3:20 | 1:00 | ◄ |
| Finishing Ability | |||
| KO/TKO % of Wins | 66.7% | 55.6% | — |
| Submission % of Wins | 11.1% | 0.0% | — |
| Decision % of Wins | 22.2% | 44.4% | — |
| Avg Fight Time | 9:21 | 12:18 | — |
| Secondary Stats | |||
| Knockdowns/15min | 0.0 | 0.0 | — |
| Reversals/15min | 0.0 | 0.0 | — |
| Edges | 7 | 2 | 0 even |
| Statistic | Ilia Topuria | Justin Gaethje | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sig. Strike Accuracy | 48.1% | 56.2% | ► |
| Sig. Strikes Landed/min | 5.8 | 5.4 | — |
| Sig. Strikes Absorbed/min | 4.6 | 6.2 | ◄ |
| Takedown Accuracy | 100.0% | 44.4% | ◄ |
| Takedown Defense | 90.9% | 71.4% | ◄ |
| Control Time/Fight | 1:20 | 1:30 | — |
| Edges | 3 | 1 | 2 even |
Striking Volume: Justin Gaethje is the busier striker, landing 6.2 significant strikes per minute vs 4.8. Their opponent absorbs 3.8 strikes per minute on average — Justin Gaethje's output should find a target.
Striking Accuracy: Justin Gaethje connects on 58.4% of significant strikes compared to 48.2%. The 10pp accuracy gap compounds over the rounds.
Grappling: Ilia Topuria shoots at 61% accuracy but Justin Gaethje stops 75% of attempts — the takedown path looks difficult.
Finish Threat: Ilia Topuria finishes 78% of wins (67% KO/TKO, 11% sub). Justin Gaethje finishes 56% of wins (56% KO/TKO, 0% sub).
Fight Length: Justin Gaethje's fights average 12:18 vs 9:21 for Ilia Topuria. If this reaches the championship rounds, Justin Gaethje's conditioning history becomes a factor.