Ilia Topuria vs Justin Gaethje

Justin Gaethje

Pro 28-5-0 | UFC 11-5-0

Age

29|37

Height

5'7"|5'11"

Reach

69"|70"

Stance

Orthodox|Orthodox

Career Statistics

Statistic	Ilia Topuria	Justin Gaethje	Edge
Striking
Sig. Strike Accuracy	50.1%	57.6%	—
Sig. Strikes Landed/min	4.8	6.3	►
Sig. Strikes Absorbed/min	4.0	6.8	◄
Strike Differential	0.8/min	-0.5/min	◄
Grappling
Takedown Accuracy	57.1%	26.7%	◄
Takedown Defense	95.2%	73.3%	◄
Takedowns Landed/15min	1.7	0.3	◄
Submission Attempts/15min	0.9	0.0	◄
Control Time/15min	3:04	0:59	◄
Finishing Ability
KO/TKO % of Wins	66.7%	63.6%	—
Submission % of Wins	11.1%	0.0%	—
Decision % of Wins	22.2%	36.4%	—
Avg Fight Time	10:25	12:38	—
Secondary Stats
Knockdowns/15min	1.2	0.7	—
Reversals/15min	0.0	0.0	—
Edges	7	1	1 even

Fight Dynamics

Career Striking Volume

Ilia Topuria Justin Gaethje League median

Statistic	Ilia Topuria	Justin Gaethje	Edge
Fight Shape
Fight Completion Rate	52.1%	56.2%	—
Avg Fight Time	10:25	12:38	—
% Fights Inside the Distance	80.0%	75.0%	—
Strength of UFC Schedule
Opponent UFC Win % (all)	75.4%	77.2%	—
Opponent UFC Record (all)	92-30 (75.4%)	190-56 (77.2%)	—
Opponent Record (among wins)	82-25 (76.6%)	120-35 (77.4%)	—
Positional Profile
% Time at Distance (approx.)	73.3%	90.2%	—
% Time in Control	20.5%	6.6%	◀
% Time Controlled	6.3%	3.3%	—
Control Rate of Clinch/Ground Time	76.5%	66.8%	—
Distance Striking
Distance Sig. Landed / Min	5.07	5.84	—
Distance Sig. Absorbed / Min	5.01	6.75	◀
Distance Striking Differential / Min	+0.05	-0.91	◀
Distance Strike Accuracy	45.8%	54.9%	▶
Distance Strike Defense	63.4%	52.8%	◀
Power & Pressure
KDs per 100 Power Strikes	2.16	0.96	◀
Knocked Down per 100 Absorbed	0.30	0.34	—
TD Attempts per 5 Distance Min	1.38	0.41	—
TDs Faced per 5 Distance Min	1.38	0.82	—
Fade Index (R3 / R1 pace)	0.93	1.04	—

UFC fights only. Metrics with insufficient data show "—" and award no edge. Methodology →

Last 5 Fights (Averages)

Statistic	Ilia Topuria	Justin Gaethje	Edge
Sig. Strike Accuracy	50.3%	53.4%	—
Sig. Strikes Landed/min	5.6	5.0	—
Sig. Strikes Absorbed/min	4.6	5.8	◄
Takedown Accuracy	75.0%	27.3%	◄
Takedown Defense	100.0%	70.0%	◄
Control Time/Fight	1:35	1:48	—
Edges	3	0	3 even

Last 3 Fights

Ilia Topuria

LOSS

vs. Justin Gaethje

UFC Freedom 250 • Jun 2026LightweightTITLE

KO/TKO • Rd 4, 5:00

Ilia Topuria97/16260%TD 1/3Ctrl 2:32KD 1

Justin Gaethje91/19247%TD 0/5Ctrl 1:32

▼ Rounds

Rnd	Fighter	Sig Str	Acc	TD	Ctrl	KD
R1	Ilia Topuria	29/58	50%	0/0	0:00	—
	Justin Gaethje	32/68	47%	0/3	0:00	—

R2	Ilia Topuria	44/60	73%	0/0	2:02	1
	Justin Gaethje	12/35	34%	0/1	0:00	—

R3	Ilia Topuria	7/15	47%	0/1	0:05	—
	Justin Gaethje	22/36	61%	0/0	0:47	—

R4	Ilia Topuria	17/29	59%	1/2	0:25	—
	Justin Gaethje	25/53	47%	0/1	0:45	—

WIN

vs. Charles Oliveira

UFC 317: Topuria vs. Oliveira • Jun 2025LightweightTITLE

KO/TKO (Punch) • Rd 1, 2:27

Ilia Topuria21/2972%TD 0/0Ctrl 1:01KD 1

Charles Oliveira9/1656%TD 0/2Ctrl 0:21

▼ Rounds

Rnd	Fighter	Sig Str	Acc	TD	Ctrl	KD
R1	Ilia Topuria	21/29	72%	0/0	1:01	1
	Charles Oliveira	9/16	56%	0/2	0:21	—

WIN

vs. Max Holloway

UFC 308: Topuria vs. Holloway • Oct 2024FeatherweightTITLE

KO/TKO (Punch) • Rd 3, 1:34

Ilia Topuria75/14452%TD 2/2Ctrl 0:45KD 1

Max Holloway79/20439%TD 0/0Ctrl 0:00

▼ Rounds

Rnd	Fighter	Sig Str	Acc	TD	Ctrl	KD
R1	Ilia Topuria	22/47	47%	2/2	0:41	—
	Max Holloway	30/75	40%	0/0	0:00	—

R2	Ilia Topuria	32/62	52%	0/0	0:00	—
	Max Holloway	35/102	34%	0/0	0:00	—

R3	Ilia Topuria	21/35	60%	0/0	0:04	1
	Max Holloway	14/27	52%	0/0	0:00	—

Justin Gaethje

WIN

vs. Ilia Topuria

UFC Freedom 250 • Jun 2026LightweightTITLE

KO/TKO • Rd 4, 5:00

Justin Gaethje91/19247%TD 0/5Ctrl 1:32

Ilia Topuria97/16260%TD 1/3Ctrl 2:32KD 1

▼ Rounds

Rnd	Fighter	Sig Str	Acc	TD	Ctrl	KD
R1	Justin Gaethje	32/68	47%	0/3	0:00	—
	Ilia Topuria	29/58	50%	0/0	0:00	—

R2	Justin Gaethje	12/35	34%	0/1	0:00	—
	Ilia Topuria	44/60	73%	0/0	2:02	1

R3	Justin Gaethje	22/36	61%	0/0	0:47	—
	Ilia Topuria	7/15	47%	0/1	0:05	—

R4	Justin Gaethje	25/53	47%	0/1	0:45	—
	Ilia Topuria	17/29	59%	1/2	0:25	—

WIN

vs. Paddy Pimblett

UFC 324: Gaethje vs. Pimblett • Jan 2026LightweightTITLE

Decision (Unanimous) • Rd 5, 5:00

Justin Gaethje144/25457%TD 3/3Ctrl 5:55KD 2

Paddy Pimblett156/31150%TD 0/5Ctrl 0:48

▼ Rounds

Rnd	Fighter	Sig Str	Acc	TD	Ctrl	KD
R1	Justin Gaethje	27/45	60%	0/0	1:01	1
	Paddy Pimblett	37/65	57%	0/1	0:00	—

R2	Justin Gaethje	32/50	64%	2/2	2:23	1
	Paddy Pimblett	22/47	47%	0/0	0:00	—

R3	Justin Gaethje	24/53	45%	0/0	0:00	—
	Paddy Pimblett	41/78	53%	0/0	0:00	—

R4	Justin Gaethje	32/54	59%	1/1	1:26	—
	Paddy Pimblett	35/58	60%	0/1	0:00	—

R5	Justin Gaethje	29/52	56%	0/0	1:05	—
	Paddy Pimblett	21/63	33%	0/3	0:48	—

WIN

vs. Rafael Fiziev

UFC 313: Pereira vs. Ankalaev • Mar 2025Lightweight

Decision (Unanimous) • Rd 3, 5:00

Justin Gaethje72/13454%TD 0/3Ctrl 1:32KD 1

Rafael Fiziev68/11957%TD 2/2Ctrl 0:40

▼ Rounds

Rnd	Fighter	Sig Str	Acc	TD	Ctrl	KD
R1	Justin Gaethje	12/21	57%	0/1	0:14	—
	Rafael Fiziev	21/32	66%	2/2	0:40	—

R2	Justin Gaethje	21/52	40%	0/0	0:43	1
	Rafael Fiziev	17/40	42%	0/0	0:00	—

R3	Justin Gaethje	39/61	64%	0/2	0:35	—
	Rafael Fiziev	30/47	64%	0/0	0:00	—

Common Opponents

vs. Charles Oliveira

Ilia Topuria

WIN

UFC 317: Topuria vs. Oliveira • Jun 2025LightweightTITLE

KO/TKO (Punch) • Rd 1, 2:27

Ilia Topuria21/2972%TD 0/0Ctrl 1:01KD 1

Charles Oliveira9/1656%TD 0/2Ctrl 0:21

▼ Rounds

Rnd	Fighter	Sig Str	Acc	TD	Ctrl	KD
R1	Ilia Topuria	21/29	72%	0/0	1:01	1
	Charles Oliveira	9/16	56%	0/2	0:21	—

Justin Gaethje

LOSS

UFC 274: Oliveira vs. Gaethje • May 2022Lightweight

Submission (Rear Naked Choke) • Rd 1, 3:22

Justin Gaethje21/3364%TD 0/0Ctrl 0:13KD 1

Charles Oliveira30/4764%TD 0/1Ctrl 0:39KD 1

▼ Rounds

Rnd	Fighter	Sig Str	Acc	TD	Ctrl	KD
R1	Justin Gaethje	21/33	64%	0/0	0:13	1
	Charles Oliveira	30/47	64%	0/1	0:39	1

vs. Max Holloway

Ilia Topuria

WIN

UFC 308: Topuria vs. Holloway • Oct 2024FeatherweightTITLE

KO/TKO (Punch) • Rd 3, 1:34

Ilia Topuria75/14452%TD 2/2Ctrl 0:45KD 1

Max Holloway79/20439%TD 0/0Ctrl 0:00

▼ Rounds

Rnd	Fighter	Sig Str	Acc	TD	Ctrl	KD
R1	Ilia Topuria	22/47	47%	2/2	0:41	—
	Max Holloway	30/75	40%	0/0	0:00	—

R2	Ilia Topuria	32/62	52%	0/0	0:00	—
	Max Holloway	35/102	34%	0/0	0:00	—

R3	Ilia Topuria	21/35	60%	0/0	0:04	1
	Max Holloway	14/27	52%	0/0	0:00	—

Justin Gaethje

LOSS

UFC 300: Pereira vs. Hill • Apr 2024Lightweight

KO/TKO (Punch) • Rd 5, 4:59

Justin Gaethje103/19952%TD 0/0Ctrl 0:00

Max Holloway181/30959%TD 0/0Ctrl 0:00KD 1

▼ Rounds

Rnd	Fighter	Sig Str	Acc	TD	Ctrl	KD
R1	Justin Gaethje	12/26	46%	0/0	0:00	—
	Max Holloway	25/39	64%	0/0	0:00	—

R2	Justin Gaethje	18/26	69%	0/0	0:00	—
	Max Holloway	30/53	57%	0/0	0:00	—

R3	Justin Gaethje	20/38	53%	0/0	0:00	—
	Max Holloway	29/53	55%	0/0	0:00	—

R4	Justin Gaethje	35/60	58%	0/0	0:00	—
	Max Holloway	35/61	57%	0/0	0:00	—

R5	Justin Gaethje	18/49	37%	0/0	0:00	—
	Max Holloway	62/103	60%	0/0	0:00	1

Analysis Summary

Striking Volume: Justin Gaethje is the busier striker, landing 6.3 significant strikes per minute vs 4.8. Their opponent absorbs 4.0 strikes per minute on average — Justin Gaethje's output should find a target.

Grappling: Ilia Topuria shoots at 57% accuracy but Justin Gaethje stops 73% of attempts — the takedown path looks difficult.

Finish Threat: Ilia Topuria finishes 78% of wins (67% KO/TKO, 11% sub). Justin Gaethje finishes 64% of wins (64% KO/TKO, 0% sub).

Fight Length: Justin Gaethje's fights average 12:38 vs 10:25 for Ilia Topuria. If this reaches the championship rounds, Justin Gaethje's conditioning history becomes a factor.

Last updated: 2026-08-22 | Data source: UFCStats.com