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Lucas Fernando vs Rafael Tobias

Lucas Fernando

Pro 9-2-0  |  UFC 0-0-0
Light Heavyweight
VS

Rafael Tobias

Pro 14-2-0  |  UFC 0-1-0
Age
29|23
Height
6'3"|6'2"
Reach
80"|74"
Stance
|Orthodox
Lucas Fernando is making their UFC debut. Statistics shown are from DWCS data. UFC Record: 0-0-0

Career Statistics

Statistic Lucas Fernando Rafael Tobias Edge
Striking
Sig. Strike Accuracy51.9%38.6%
Sig. Strikes Landed/min1.92.6
Sig. Strikes Absorbed/min4.76.3
Strike Differential-2.9/min-3.7/min
Grappling
Takedown Accuracy30.0%25.0%
Takedown Defense
Takedowns Landed/15min3.02.0
Submission Attempts/15min1.01.0
Control Time/15min5:442:31
Finishing Ability
KO/TKO % of Wins0.0%0.0%
Submission % of Wins0.0%0.0%
Decision % of Wins0.0%0.0%
Avg Fight Time15:0015:00
Secondary Stats
Knockdowns/15min0.00.0
Reversals/15min0.00.0
Edges306 even

Last 5 Fights (Averages)

Statistic Lucas Fernando Rafael Tobias Edge
Sig. Strike Accuracy51.9%38.6%
Sig. Strikes Landed/min1.92.6
Sig. Strikes Absorbed/min4.76.3
Takedown Accuracy30.0%25.0%
Takedown Defense
Control Time/Fight5:442:31
Edges303 even

Last 3 Fights

Lucas Fernando

LOSS
vs. Cesar Almeida
DWCS 7.1 • Aug 2023
Decision (Unanimous) • Rd 3, 5:00
Lucas Fernando28/5452%TD 3/10Ctrl 5:44
Cesar Almeida71/11661%TD 0/0Ctrl 5:43
▼ Rounds

Rafael Tobias

LOSS
vs. Diyar Nurgozhay
UFC 326: Holloway vs. Oliveira 2 • Mar 2026Light Heavyweight
Decision (Unanimous) • Rd 3, 5:00
Rafael Tobias39/10139%TD 2/8Ctrl 2:31
Diyar Nurgozhay94/14366%TD 0/1Ctrl 1:28
▼ Rounds
WIN
vs. Jair De Oliveira
DWCS 9.7 • Sep 2025
Submission (Rear Naked Choke) • Rd 1, 3:46
Rafael Tobias0/0TD 0/0Ctrl 0:00
Jair De Oliveira15/2560%TD 0/0Ctrl 0:04
▼ Rounds

Common Opponents

No Common Opponents

Analysis Summary

Striking Volume: Both fighters operate at a similar pace (1.9 vs 2.6 sig str/min). Accuracy and timing will decide the striking battle.

Striking Accuracy: Lucas Fernando connects on 51.9% of significant strikes compared to 38.6%. The 13pp accuracy gap compounds over the rounds.

Grappling: Lucas Fernando shoots at 30% accuracy but Rafael Tobias stops 100% of attempts — the takedown path looks difficult. Rafael Tobias is a serious grappling threat at 2.0 TD/15min (25% accuracy) against Lucas Fernando's 0% defense.

Control: Lucas Fernando controls 5:44 per fight on average vs 2:31 — sustained control shifts rounds and drains cardio.

Finish Threat: Both fighters trend toward decisions — Lucas Fernando (0% of wins) and Rafael Tobias (0%).

Report generated: 2026-08-06 08:00:32 | Data source: UFCStats.com