Lucas Fernando vs Rafael Tobias

Rafael Tobias

Pro 14-3-0 | UFC 0-2-0

Age

29|23

Height

6'3"|6'2"

Reach

80"|74"

Stance

Orthodox|Orthodox

Career Statistics

Statistic	Lucas Fernando	Rafael Tobias	Edge
Striking
Sig. Strike Accuracy	60.0%	33.1%	◄
Sig. Strikes Landed/min	6.2	2.0	◄
Sig. Strikes Absorbed/min	1.2	6.2	◄
Strike Differential	5.0/min	-4.2/min	◄
Grappling
Takedown Accuracy	0.0%	33.3%	►
Takedown Defense	0.0%	100.0%	►
Takedowns Landed/15min	0.0	1.7	►
Submission Attempts/15min	0.0	0.6	►
Control Time/15min	0:12	1:58	►
Finishing Ability
KO/TKO % of Wins	100.0%	0.0%	—
Submission % of Wins	0.0%	0.0%	—
Decision % of Wins	0.0%	0.0%	—
Avg Fight Time	11:10	13:05	—
Secondary Stats
Knockdowns/15min	2.7	0.0	—
Reversals/15min	0.0	0.0	—
Edges	4	5	0 even

Last 5 Fights (Averages)

Statistic	Lucas Fernando	Rafael Tobias	Edge
Sig. Strike Accuracy	60.0%	33.1%	◄
Sig. Strikes Landed/min	6.2	2.0	◄
Sig. Strikes Absorbed/min	1.2	6.2	◄
Takedown Accuracy	0.0%	33.3%	►
Takedown Defense	0.0%	100.0%	►
Control Time/Fight	0:09	1:43	►
Edges	3	3	0 even

Last 3 Fights

Lucas Fernando

WIN

vs. Rafael Tobias

UFC 330: Makhachev vs. Machado Garry • Aug 2026Light Heavyweight

KO/TKO (Knee) • Rd 3, 1:10

Lucas Fernando69/11560%TD 0/0Ctrl 0:09KD 2

Rafael Tobias13/5623%TD 1/1Ctrl 0:55

▼ Rounds

Rnd	Fighter	Sig Str	Acc	TD	Ctrl	KD
R1	Lucas Fernando	27/47	57%	0/0	0:00	—
	Rafael Tobias	7/25	28%	1/1	0:50	—

R2	Lucas Fernando	28/45	62%	0/0	0:07	1
	Rafael Tobias	6/23	26%	0/0	0:05	—

R3	Lucas Fernando	14/23	61%	0/0	0:02	1
	Rafael Tobias	0/8	0%	0/0	0:00	—

LOSS

vs. Cesar Almeida

DWCS 7.1 • Aug 2023

Decision (Unanimous) • Rd 3, 5:00

Lucas Fernando28/5452%TD 3/10Ctrl 5:44

Cesar Almeida71/11661%TD 0/0Ctrl 5:43

▼ Rounds

Rnd	Fighter	Sig Str	Acc	TD	Ctrl	KD
R1	Lucas Fernando	12/17	71%	2/4	2:05	—
	Cesar Almeida	15/22	68%	0/0	1:36	—

R2	Lucas Fernando	7/13	54%	0/3	0:48	—
	Cesar Almeida	43/62	69%	0/0	3:40	—

R3	Lucas Fernando	9/24	38%	1/3	2:51	—
	Cesar Almeida	13/32	41%	0/0	0:27	—

Rafael Tobias

LOSS

vs. Lucas Fernando

UFC 330: Makhachev vs. Machado Garry • Aug 2026Light Heavyweight

KO/TKO (Knee) • Rd 3, 1:10

Rafael Tobias13/5623%TD 1/1Ctrl 0:55

Lucas Fernando69/11560%TD 0/0Ctrl 0:09KD 2

▼ Rounds

Rnd	Fighter	Sig Str	Acc	TD	Ctrl	KD
R1	Rafael Tobias	7/25	28%	1/1	0:50	—
	Lucas Fernando	27/47	57%	0/0	0:00	—

R2	Rafael Tobias	6/23	26%	0/0	0:05	—
	Lucas Fernando	28/45	62%	0/0	0:07	1

R3	Rafael Tobias	0/8	0%	0/0	0:00	—
	Lucas Fernando	14/23	61%	0/0	0:02	1

LOSS

vs. Diyar Nurgozhay

UFC 326: Holloway vs. Oliveira 2 • Mar 2026Light Heavyweight

Decision (Unanimous) • Rd 3, 5:00

Rafael Tobias39/10139%TD 2/8Ctrl 2:31

Diyar Nurgozhay94/14366%TD 0/1Ctrl 1:28

▼ Rounds

Rnd	Fighter	Sig Str	Acc	TD	Ctrl	KD
R1	Rafael Tobias	10/38	26%	0/0	0:00	—
	Diyar Nurgozhay	36/57	63%	0/0	0:18	—

R2	Rafael Tobias	16/34	47%	1/6	1:44	—
	Diyar Nurgozhay	27/46	59%	0/0	1:03	—

R3	Rafael Tobias	13/29	45%	1/2	0:47	—
	Diyar Nurgozhay	31/40	78%	0/1	0:07	—

WIN

vs. Jair De Oliveira

DWCS 9.7 • Sep 2025

Submission (Rear Naked Choke) • Rd 1, 3:46

Rafael Tobias13/4231%TD 1/1Ctrl 0:16

Jair De Oliveira15/2560%TD 0/0Ctrl 0:04

▼ Rounds

Rnd	Fighter	Sig Str	Acc	TD	Ctrl	KD
R1	Rafael Tobias	13/42	31%	1/1	0:16	—
	Jair De Oliveira	15/25	60%	0/0	0:04	—

Common Opponents

No Common Opponents

Analysis Summary

Striking Volume: Lucas Fernando is the busier striker, landing 6.2 significant strikes per minute vs 2.0. Their opponent absorbs 6.2 strikes per minute on average — Lucas Fernando's output should find a target.

Striking Accuracy: Lucas Fernando connects on 60.0% of significant strikes compared to 33.1%. The 27pp accuracy gap compounds over the rounds.

Grappling: Rafael Tobias is a serious grappling threat at 1.7 TD/15min (33% accuracy) against Lucas Fernando's 0% defense.

Control: Rafael Tobias controls 1:43 per fight on average vs 0:09 — sustained control shifts rounds and drains cardio.

Finish Threat: Lucas Fernando finishes 100% of wins (100% KO/TKO, 0% sub).

Fight Length: Rafael Tobias's fights average 13:05 vs 11:10 for Lucas Fernando. If this reaches the championship rounds, Rafael Tobias's conditioning history becomes a factor.

Last updated: 2026-08-22 | Data source: UFCStats.com