Terrance McKinney vs Kyle Nelson

Terrance McKinney

Pro 18-9-0  |  UFC 8-6-0
VS

Kyle Nelson

Pro 17-7-1  |  UFC 5-6-1
Age
31|35
Height
5'10"|5'11"
Reach
73"|71"
Stance
Switch|Switch

Career Statistics

Statistic Terrance McKinney Kyle Nelson Edge
Striking
Sig. Strike Accuracy55.8%45.8%
Sig. Strikes Landed/min8.03.6
Sig. Strikes Absorbed/min4.84.6
Strike Differential3.2/min-1.0/min
Grappling
Takedown Accuracy46.7%23.1%
Takedown Defense72.7%66.7%
Takedowns Landed/15min3.01.2
Submission Attempts/15min2.20.5
Control Time/15min6:463:04
Finishing Ability
KO/TKO % of Wins62.5%40.0%
Submission % of Wins37.5%0.0%
Decision % of Wins0.0%60.0%
Avg Fight Time2:279:33
Secondary Stats
Knockdowns/15min1.30.1
Reversals/15min0.40.0
Edges702 even

Fight Dynamics

Career Striking Volume
Terrance McKinney   Kyle Nelson   League median
StatisticTerrance McKinneyKyle NelsonEdge
Fight Shape
Fight Completion Rate16.4%63.8%
Avg Fight Time2:279:33
% Fights Inside the Distance100.0%58.3%
Strength of UFC Schedule
Opponent UFC Win % (all)53.9%58.5%
Opponent UFC Record (all)48-41 (53.9%)38-27 (58.5%)
Opponent Record (among wins)16-20 (44.4%)16-11 (59.3%)
Positional Profile
% Time at Distance (approx.)44.5%56.6%
% Time in Control45.1%20.5%
% Time Controlled10.4%22.9%
Control Rate of Clinch/Ground Time81.3%47.2%
Distance Striking
Distance Sig. Landed / Min8.365.33
Distance Sig. Absorbed / Min6.795.88
Distance Striking Differential / Min+1.57-0.55
Distance Strike Accuracy43.1%43.5%
Distance Strike Defense48.3%58.3%
Power & Pressure
KDs per 100 Power Strikes1.880.31
Knocked Down per 100 Absorbed4.760.31
TD Attempts per 5 Distance Min4.903.00
TDs Faced per 5 Distance Min3.591.39
Fade Index (R3 / R1 pace)0.70
UFC fights only. Metrics with insufficient data show "—" and award no edge. Methodology →

Last 5 Fights (Averages)

Statistic Terrance McKinney Kyle Nelson Edge
Sig. Strike Accuracy61.3%46.7%
Sig. Strikes Landed/min13.34.7
Sig. Strikes Absorbed/min8.14.7
Takedown Accuracy100.0%25.0%
Takedown Defense50.0%50.0%
Control Time/Fight0:501:14
Edges312 even

Last 3 Fights

Terrance McKinney

LOSS
vs. King Green
UFC 329: McGregor vs. Holloway 2 • Jul 2026Lightweight
KO/TKO (Punch) • Rd 1, 4:59
Terrance McKinney45/8056%TD 1/1Ctrl 2:12
King Green43/7260%TD 0/0Ctrl 0:03KD 1
▼ Rounds
WIN
vs. Kyle Nelson
UFC Fight Night: Adesanya vs. Pyfer • Mar 2026Lightweight
KO/TKO (Punches) • Rd 1, 0:24
Terrance McKinney13/2748%TD 0/0Ctrl 0:13
Kyle Nelson1/333%TD 0/0Ctrl 0:00
▼ Rounds
LOSS
vs. Chris Duncan
UFC 323: Dvalishvili vs. Yan 2 • Dec 2025Lightweight
Submission (Anaconda Choke) • Rd 1, 2:30
Terrance McKinney31/5754%TD 0/0Ctrl 0:00
Chris Duncan38/5569%TD 1/2Ctrl 1:10KD 1
▼ Rounds

Kyle Nelson

LOSS
vs. Terrance McKinney
UFC Fight Night: Adesanya vs. Pyfer • Mar 2026Lightweight
KO/TKO (Punches) • Rd 1, 0:24
Kyle Nelson1/333%TD 0/0Ctrl 0:00
Terrance McKinney13/2748%TD 0/0Ctrl 0:13
▼ Rounds
WIN
vs. Matt Frevola
UFC Fight Night: De Ridder vs. Allen • Oct 2025Lightweight
Decision (Unanimous) • Rd 3, 5:00
Kyle Nelson63/13547%TD 2/5Ctrl 3:11KD 1
Matt Frevola43/13632%TD 2/3Ctrl 1:58
▼ Rounds
LOSS
vs. Steve Garcia
UFC Fight Night: Burns vs. Brady • Sep 2024Featherweight
KO/TKO (Elbows) • Rd 1, 3:59
Kyle Nelson1/250%TD 0/0Ctrl 2:13
Steve Garcia22/3759%TD 0/0Ctrl 1:36
▼ Rounds

Common Opponents

vs. Matt Frevola
Terrance McKinney
WIN
UFC 263: Adesanya vs. Vettori 2 • Jun 2021Lightweight
KO/TKO (Punch) • Rd 1, 0:07
Terrance McKinney4/580%TD 0/0Ctrl 0:03KD 1
Matt Frevola0/0TD 0/0Ctrl 0:00
▼ Rounds
Kyle Nelson
WIN
UFC Fight Night: De Ridder vs. Allen • Oct 2025Lightweight
Decision (Unanimous) • Rd 3, 5:00
Kyle Nelson63/13547%TD 2/5Ctrl 3:11KD 1
Matt Frevola43/13632%TD 2/3Ctrl 1:58
▼ Rounds

Analysis Summary

Striking Volume: Terrance McKinney is the busier striker, landing 8.0 significant strikes per minute vs 3.6. Their opponent absorbs 4.6 strikes per minute on average — Terrance McKinney's output should find a target.

Striking Accuracy: Terrance McKinney connects on 55.8% of significant strikes compared to 45.8%. The 10pp accuracy gap compounds over the rounds.

Grappling: Terrance McKinney shoots at 47% accuracy but Kyle Nelson stops 67% of attempts — the takedown path looks difficult. Kyle Nelson shoots at 23% accuracy against Terrance McKinney's 73% defense — Terrance McKinney should keep it standing.

Finish Threat: Terrance McKinney finishes 100% of wins (62% KO/TKO, 38% sub).

Fight Length: Kyle Nelson's fights average 9:33 vs 2:27 for Terrance McKinney. If this reaches the championship rounds, Kyle Nelson's conditioning history becomes a factor.

Last updated: 2026-08-13 | Data source: UFCStats.com