Chris Duncan vs Drew Dober

Chris Duncan

Pro 15-3-0 | UFC 6-2-0

Lightweight

Drew Dober

Pro 29-15-0 (1 NC) | UFC 15-11-0

Age

33|37

Height

5'10"|5'8"

Reach

71"|70"

Stance

Orthodox|Southpaw

Career Statistics

Statistic	Chris Duncan	Drew Dober	Edge
Striking
Sig. Strike Accuracy	46.2%	41.0%	—
Sig. Strikes Landed/min	4.6	4.5	—
Sig. Strikes Absorbed/min	4.2	4.3	—
Strike Differential	0.4/min	0.2/min	—
Grappling
Takedown Accuracy	40.6%	17.0%	◄
Takedown Defense	55.6%	58.2%	—
Takedowns Landed/15min	2.8	0.6	◄
Submission Attempts/15min	0.6	0.1	◄
Control Time/15min	3:16	1:58	◄
Finishing Ability
KO/TKO % of Wins	0.0%	73.3%	—
Submission % of Wins	50.0%	6.7%	—
Decision % of Wins	50.0%	20.0%	—
Avg Fight Time	8:43	8:13	—
Secondary Stats
Knockdowns/15min	0.4	0.7	—
Reversals/15min	0.0	0.1	—
Edges	4	0	5 even

Fight Dynamics

Career Striking Volume

Chris Duncan Drew Dober League median

Statistic	Chris Duncan	Drew Dober	Edge
Fight Shape
Fight Completion Rate	53.7%	54.8%	—
Avg Fight Time	8:43	8:13	—
% Fights Inside the Distance	62.5%	70.4%	—
Strength of UFC Schedule
Opponent UFC Win % (all)	65.2%	57.1%	◀
Opponent UFC Record (all)	30-16 (65.2%)	105-79 (57.1%)	—
Opponent Record (among wins)	16-9 (64.0%)	58-55 (51.3%)	—
Positional Profile
% Time at Distance (approx.)	68.5%	64.7%	—
% Time in Control	21.8%	13.2%	◀
% Time Controlled	9.7%	22.1%	◀
Control Rate of Clinch/Ground Time	69.2%	37.4%	◀
Distance Striking
Distance Sig. Landed / Min	5.53	5.50	—
Distance Sig. Absorbed / Min	5.36	5.37	—
Distance Striking Differential / Min	+0.17	+0.13	—
Distance Strike Accuracy	42.3%	37.1%	◀
Distance Strike Defense	54.9%	57.0%	—
Power & Pressure
KDs per 100 Power Strikes	0.86	1.32	▶
Knocked Down per 100 Absorbed	0.00	0.39	◀
TD Attempts per 5 Distance Min	3.35	1.85	—
TDs Faced per 5 Distance Min	1.88	2.33	—
Fade Index (R3 / R1 pace)	1.65	1.14	—

UFC fights only. Metrics with insufficient data show "—" and award no edge. Methodology →

Last 5 Fights (Averages)

Statistic	Chris Duncan	Drew Dober	Edge
Sig. Strike Accuracy	45.0%	44.1%	—
Sig. Strikes Landed/min	4.8	4.1	—
Sig. Strikes Absorbed/min	5.5	3.8	►
Takedown Accuracy	45.5%	14.3%	◄
Takedown Defense	60.0%	66.7%	—
Control Time/Fight	1:27	0:19	—
Edges	1	1	4 even

Last 3 Fights

Chris Duncan

LOSS

vs. Renato Moicano

UFC Fight Night: Moicano vs. Duncan • Apr 2026Lightweight

Submission (Rear Naked Choke) • Rd 2, 3:14

Chris Duncan27/6244%TD 0/2Ctrl 0:01

Renato Moicano21/3658%TD 1/4Ctrl 3:16

▼ Rounds

Rnd	Fighter	Sig Str	Acc	TD	Ctrl	KD
R1	Chris Duncan	17/38	45%	0/1	0:01	—
	Renato Moicano	14/20	70%	0/2	1:13	—

R2	Chris Duncan	10/24	42%	0/1	0:00	—
	Renato Moicano	7/16	44%	1/2	2:03	—

WIN

vs. Terrance McKinney

UFC 323: Dvalishvili vs. Yan 2 • Dec 2025Lightweight

Submission (Anaconda Choke) • Rd 1, 2:30

Chris Duncan38/5569%TD 1/2Ctrl 1:10KD 1

Terrance McKinney31/5754%TD 0/0Ctrl 0:00

▼ Rounds

Rnd	Fighter	Sig Str	Acc	TD	Ctrl	KD
R1	Chris Duncan	38/55	69%	1/2	1:10	1
	Terrance McKinney	31/57	54%	0/0	0:00	—

WIN

vs. Mateusz Rebecki

UFC Fight Night: Taira vs. Park • Aug 2025Lightweight

Decision (Unanimous) • Rd 3, 5:00

Chris Duncan92/22241%TD 0/1Ctrl 0:27

Mateusz Rebecki114/26743%TD 2/6Ctrl 1:23

▼ Rounds

Rnd	Fighter	Sig Str	Acc	TD	Ctrl	KD
R1	Chris Duncan	19/62	31%	0/1	0:00	—
	Mateusz Rebecki	32/74	43%	0/1	1:00	—

R2	Chris Duncan	25/62	40%	0/0	0:00	—
	Mateusz Rebecki	38/88	43%	1/1	0:19	—

R3	Chris Duncan	48/98	49%	0/0	0:27	—
	Mateusz Rebecki	44/105	42%	1/4	0:04	—

Drew Dober

WIN

vs. Michael Johnson

UFC 326: Holloway vs. Oliveira 2 • Mar 2026Lightweight

KO/TKO (Punch) • Rd 2, 1:53

Drew Dober22/5540%TD 0/0Ctrl 0:00KD 1

Michael Johnson27/7636%TD 0/0Ctrl 0:00

▼ Rounds

Rnd	Fighter	Sig Str	Acc	TD	Ctrl	KD
R1	Drew Dober	11/29	38%	0/0	0:00	—
	Michael Johnson	18/51	35%	0/0	0:00	—

R2	Drew Dober	11/26	42%	0/0	0:00	1
	Michael Johnson	9/25	36%	0/0	0:00	—

WIN

vs. Kyle Prepolec

UFC Fight Night: De Ridder vs. Allen • Oct 2025Lightweight

KO/TKO (Punches) • Rd 3, 1:16

Drew Dober83/16152%TD 0/1Ctrl 0:04

Kyle Prepolec51/16431%TD 0/3Ctrl 0:02

▼ Rounds

Rnd	Fighter	Sig Str	Acc	TD	Ctrl	KD
R1	Drew Dober	28/58	48%	0/0	0:00	—
	Kyle Prepolec	17/66	26%	0/0	0:00	—

R2	Drew Dober	35/58	60%	0/1	0:00	—
	Kyle Prepolec	27/80	34%	0/1	0:00	—

R3	Drew Dober	20/45	44%	0/0	0:04	—
	Kyle Prepolec	7/18	39%	0/2	0:02	—

LOSS

vs. Manuel Torres

UFC Fight Night: Moreno vs. Erceg • Mar 2025Lightweight

KO/TKO (Punches) • Rd 1, 1:45

Drew Dober3/933%TD 0/0Ctrl 0:00

Manuel Torres23/2592%TD 0/0Ctrl 0:10KD 1

▼ Rounds

Rnd	Fighter	Sig Str	Acc	TD	Ctrl	KD
R1	Drew Dober	3/9	33%	0/0	0:00	—
	Manuel Torres	23/25	92%	0/0	0:10	1

Common Opponents

vs. Renato Moicano

Chris Duncan

LOSS

UFC Fight Night: Moicano vs. Duncan • Apr 2026Lightweight

Submission (Rear Naked Choke) • Rd 2, 3:14

Chris Duncan27/6244%TD 0/2Ctrl 0:01

Renato Moicano21/3658%TD 1/4Ctrl 3:16

▼ Rounds

Rnd	Fighter	Sig Str	Acc	TD	Ctrl	KD
R1	Chris Duncan	17/38	45%	0/1	0:01	—
	Renato Moicano	14/20	70%	0/2	1:13	—

R2	Chris Duncan	10/24	42%	0/1	0:00	—
	Renato Moicano	7/16	44%	1/2	2:03	—

Drew Dober

LOSS

UFC Fight Night: Dolidze vs. Imavov • Feb 2024Lightweight

Decision (Unanimous) • Rd 3, 5:00

Drew Dober23/5939%TD 1/2Ctrl 1:02

Renato Moicano23/4255%TD 3/6Ctrl 10:33

▼ Rounds

Rnd	Fighter	Sig Str	Acc	TD	Ctrl	KD
R1	Drew Dober	6/20	30%	0/0	0:01	—
	Renato Moicano	6/12	50%	1/2	3:48	—

R2	Drew Dober	6/13	46%	1/1	1:01	—
	Renato Moicano	2/5	40%	2/3	3:19	—

R3	Drew Dober	11/26	42%	0/1	0:00	—
	Renato Moicano	15/25	60%	0/1	3:26	—

vs. Terrance McKinney

Chris Duncan

WIN

UFC 323: Dvalishvili vs. Yan 2 • Dec 2025Lightweight

Submission (Anaconda Choke) • Rd 1, 2:30

Chris Duncan38/5569%TD 1/2Ctrl 1:10KD 1

Terrance McKinney31/5754%TD 0/0Ctrl 0:00

▼ Rounds

Rnd	Fighter	Sig Str	Acc	TD	Ctrl	KD
R1	Chris Duncan	38/55	69%	1/2	1:10	1
	Terrance McKinney	31/57	54%	0/0	0:00	—

Drew Dober

WIN

UFC Fight Night: Santos vs. Ankalaev • Mar 2022Lightweight

KO/TKO (Punches) • Rd 1, 3:17

Drew Dober17/3746%TD 0/1Ctrl 0:24KD 1

Terrance McKinney36/6159%TD 2/3Ctrl 1:33KD 1

▼ Rounds

Rnd	Fighter	Sig Str	Acc	TD	Ctrl	KD
R1	Drew Dober	17/37	46%	0/1	0:24	1
	Terrance McKinney	36/61	59%	2/3	1:33	1

vs. Manuel Torres

Chris Duncan

LOSS

UFC Fight Night: Moreno vs. Royval 2 • Feb 2024Lightweight

Submission (Rear Naked Choke) • Rd 1, 1:46

Chris Duncan1/250%TD 1/3Ctrl 0:40

Manuel Torres3/560%TD 2/2Ctrl 0:42

▼ Rounds

Rnd	Fighter	Sig Str	Acc	TD	Ctrl	KD
R1	Chris Duncan	1/2	50%	1/3	0:40	—
	Manuel Torres	3/5	60%	2/2	0:42	—

Drew Dober

LOSS

UFC Fight Night: Moreno vs. Erceg • Mar 2025Lightweight

KO/TKO (Punches) • Rd 1, 1:45

Drew Dober3/933%TD 0/0Ctrl 0:00

Manuel Torres23/2592%TD 0/0Ctrl 0:10KD 1

▼ Rounds

Rnd	Fighter	Sig Str	Acc	TD	Ctrl	KD
R1	Drew Dober	3/9	33%	0/0	0:00	—
	Manuel Torres	23/25	92%	0/0	0:10	1

Analysis Summary

Striking Volume: Both fighters operate at a similar pace (4.6 vs 4.5 sig str/min). Accuracy and timing will decide the striking battle.

Grappling: Chris Duncan shoots at 41% accuracy but Drew Dober stops 58% of attempts — the takedown path looks difficult. Drew Dober shoots at 17% accuracy against Chris Duncan's 56% defense — Chris Duncan should keep it standing.

Finish Threat: Chris Duncan finishes 50% of wins (0% KO/TKO, 50% sub). Drew Dober finishes 80% of wins (73% KO/TKO, 7% sub).

Last updated: 2026-09-21 | Data source: UFCStats.com