Renato Moicano vs Chris Duncan

Renato Moicano

Pro 21-7-1  |  UFC 13-7-0
VS

Chris Duncan

Pro 15-3-0  |  UFC 6-2-0
Age
37|33
Height
5'11"|5'10"
Reach
72"|71"
Stance
Orthodox|Orthodox

Career Statistics

Statistic Renato Moicano Chris Duncan Edge
Striking
Sig. Strike Accuracy49.2%46.2%
Sig. Strikes Landed/min4.14.6
Sig. Strikes Absorbed/min3.64.2
Strike Differential0.5/min0.4/min
Grappling
Takedown Accuracy40.4%40.6%
Takedown Defense64.3%55.6%
Takedowns Landed/15min1.72.8
Submission Attempts/15min0.60.6
Control Time/15min3:173:16
Finishing Ability
KO/TKO % of Wins15.4%0.0%
Submission % of Wins53.8%50.0%
Decision % of Wins30.8%50.0%
Avg Fight Time9:248:43
Secondary Stats
Knockdowns/15min0.20.4
Reversals/15min0.10.0
Edges018 even

Fight Dynamics

Career Striking Volume
Renato Moicano   Chris Duncan   League median
StatisticRenato MoicanoChris DuncanEdge
Fight Shape
Fight Completion Rate53.7%53.7%
Avg Fight Time9:248:43
% Fights Inside the Distance70.0%62.5%
Strength of UFC Schedule
Opponent UFC Win % (all)67.5%65.2%
Opponent UFC Record (all)139-67 (67.5%)30-16 (65.2%)
Opponent Record (among wins)71-43 (62.3%)16-9 (64.0%)
Positional Profile
% Time at Distance (approx.)65.0%68.5%
% Time in Control21.9%21.8%
% Time Controlled13.1%9.7%
Control Rate of Clinch/Ground Time62.5%69.2%
Distance Striking
Distance Sig. Landed / Min5.215.53
Distance Sig. Absorbed / Min4.555.36
Distance Striking Differential / Min+0.66+0.17
Distance Strike Accuracy46.1%42.3%
Distance Strike Defense63.0%54.9%
Power & Pressure
KDs per 100 Power Strikes0.380.86
Knocked Down per 100 Absorbed0.880.00
TD Attempts per 5 Distance Min2.133.35
TDs Faced per 5 Distance Min1.721.88
Fade Index (R3 / R1 pace)1.371.65
UFC fights only. Metrics with insufficient data show "—" and award no edge. Methodology →

Last 5 Fights (Averages)

Statistic Renato Moicano Chris Duncan Edge
Sig. Strike Accuracy55.9%45.0%
Sig. Strikes Landed/min3.24.8
Sig. Strikes Absorbed/min2.85.5
Takedown Accuracy25.0%45.5%
Takedown Defense33.3%60.0%
Control Time/Fight3:031:27
Edges330 even

Last 3 Fights

Renato Moicano

WIN
vs. Chris Duncan
UFC Fight Night: Moicano vs. Duncan • Apr 2026Lightweight
Submission (Rear Naked Choke) • Rd 2, 3:14
Renato Moicano21/3658%TD 1/4Ctrl 3:16
Chris Duncan27/6244%TD 0/2Ctrl 0:01
▼ Rounds
LOSS
vs. Beneil Dariush
UFC 317: Topuria vs. Oliveira • Jun 2025Lightweight
Decision (Unanimous) • Rd 3, 5:00
Renato Moicano31/6151%TD 0/3Ctrl 1:20KD 1
Beneil Dariush56/10752%TD 5/5Ctrl 5:53
▼ Rounds
LOSS
vs. Islam Makhachev
UFC 311: Makhachev vs. Moicano • Jan 2025LightweightTITLE
Submission (D'Arce Choke) • Rd 1, 4:05
Renato Moicano9/2733%TD 0/0Ctrl 0:00
Islam Makhachev6/1932%TD 1/2Ctrl 1:27
▼ Rounds

Chris Duncan

LOSS
vs. Renato Moicano
UFC Fight Night: Moicano vs. Duncan • Apr 2026Lightweight
Submission (Rear Naked Choke) • Rd 2, 3:14
Chris Duncan27/6244%TD 0/2Ctrl 0:01
Renato Moicano21/3658%TD 1/4Ctrl 3:16
▼ Rounds
WIN
vs. Terrance McKinney
UFC 323: Dvalishvili vs. Yan 2 • Dec 2025Lightweight
Submission (Anaconda Choke) • Rd 1, 2:30
Chris Duncan38/5569%TD 1/2Ctrl 1:10KD 1
Terrance McKinney31/5754%TD 0/0Ctrl 0:00
▼ Rounds
WIN
vs. Mateusz Rebecki
UFC Fight Night: Taira vs. Park • Aug 2025Lightweight
Decision (Unanimous) • Rd 3, 5:00
Chris Duncan92/22241%TD 0/1Ctrl 0:27
Mateusz Rebecki114/26743%TD 2/6Ctrl 1:23
▼ Rounds

Common Opponents

No Common Opponents

Analysis Summary

Striking Volume: Both fighters operate at a similar pace (4.1 vs 4.6 sig str/min). Accuracy and timing will decide the striking battle.

Grappling: Renato Moicano shoots at 40% accuracy but Chris Duncan stops 56% of attempts — the takedown path looks difficult. Chris Duncan shoots at 41% accuracy against Renato Moicano's 64% defense — Renato Moicano should keep it standing.

Finish Threat: Renato Moicano finishes 69% of wins (15% KO/TKO, 54% sub). Chris Duncan finishes 50% of wins (0% KO/TKO, 50% sub).

Last updated: 2026-08-13 | Data source: UFCStats.com